Dubai market intelligence

The Dubai property market at a glance — the transaction boom, the supply pipeline vs what actually gets delivered, who is buying, what the analysts forecast, the megaprojects reshaping the map, and the rules that matter. Distilled from a sourced research corpus.

Transaction boom (2020 → 2025)

Total annual real-estate value, AED bn. Up ~424% in five years to a record AED 917bn.

AED billions175202030020215282022634202376120249172025

Supply: scheduled vs reality

Huge pipelines are announced, but historically only a fraction completes on time — the real number is what matters.

Residential units115k planned60k78k2026134k planned67k80k2027120k planned60k75k2028ScheduledLikely delivered

Who is buying (2025)

Top foreign buyer nationalities by share.

India
22%
United Kingdom
17%
China
13.5%
Saudi Arabia
11%
Russia
9%

What the analysts say

A spread of independent mid-2026 views — bullish to cautious.

ValuStratCitywide residential +10% in 2026; villas to outperform at +17.7%.
Knight FrankDubai #1 globally for $10M+ home sales; prime values +25.1% (PIRI 100, Apr 2026).
FitchForecasts a correction (initial 15%) amplified by the 2026 conflict as supply peaks.
S&P GlobalCrash ruled out; a meaningful correction is possible only if conflict ran beyond four weeks.
UBSDubai ranked #5 on the Global Real Estate Bubble Index — largest bubble-risk jump of any city.
ColliersMarket moving from exceptional momentum to a measured, mature phase.

Megaprojects reshaping the map

Metro Blue Line2029

AED 20.5bn, 30 km — connects Dubai Silicon Oasis, Creek Harbour, International City.

Metro Gold Line2032

AED 34bn, 42 km, 18 underground stations to Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Al Maktoum Int'l Airport2032

AED 128bn expansion; 260M passenger capacity; DWC becomes the main hub.

Palm Jebel Ali2027+

AED 37.6bn in sales; twice the size of Palm Jumeirah; first handovers underway.

Etihad Rail (passenger)2026+

Abu Dhabi–Dubai in 57 minutes; Dubai station from Sept 2026.

Dubai 2040 Master Plan2040

7.8M population target, +105% green space, 80% of needs within walking distance.

Rules that matter

DLD transfer fee
4%

+ AED 4,200 trustee + 0.25% mortgage reg (unchanged since 2013).

Golden Visa (property)
AED 2M

10-year; the 50% upfront-payment rule was removed in Feb 2026.

Mortgage LTV cap
80% / 50%

80% for a first home ≤ AED 5M; off-plan capped at 50%.

Rent increase cap
0–20%

Five tiers set by the Smart Rental Index vs your building's benchmark.

Corporate tax on RE
9%

On company profits above AED 375k; individual investors are exempt.

Eviction notice
12 months

Notarised notice required for owner personal-use eviction.

Figures distilled from the dxbprop research corpus (DLD, ValuStrat, Knight Frank, Cavendish Maxwell, Fitch, S&P, Colliers, UBS, official UAE/Dubai sources). General market intelligence, not investment advice.

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