Dubai Market Report — September 2026

The month in one look

Dubai's property market cooled in September 2026: 10,973 sales worth AED 28.8B were registered with the Dubai Land Department — -6.6% vs August and -45.0% vs September 2025. Off-plan led the market at 65% of all sales (72% a year earlier). Our citywide price index stands at 1.74 (+0.4% on the month, +1.3% on the year), 4.5% below its January 2026 high. Year to date, 2026 has recorded 119,739 sales (-22.4% vs the same period of 2025) worth AED 368.9B.

Sales activity

So far in 2026 the market has registered 119,739 sales worth AED 368.9B, -22.4% against the same months of 2025. Total value in September 2026 was AED 28.8B (+2.4% on the month, -45.8% on the year). Off-plan accounted for 7,166 of the 10,973 sales and ready property for 3,807.

These totals count every registered sale: apartments, villas, townhouses, offices, shops, hotel units, land and whole buildings. Prices in this report are always given per kind.

Prices — where we stand

Ready and off-plan are priced in different markets and are never blended in our statistics.

The long view. The citywide index at 1.74 compares with a 2014-cycle peak of 1.31 and a June 2021 low of 1.07: today's prices are +32.9% against that previous peak and +62.2% against the low. Put differently, AED 1M buys about 629 sqft (58 m²) of ready apartment today, against about 868 sqft (81 m²) in 2016. The index is 4.5% off its January 2026 high — a pause within a still-positive yearly trend.

The index month by month

What a ready apartment sold for in Sep 2026

What buyers paid

Each column is the share of that kind's own sales in the month (8,640 apartments, 808 villas and townhouses in Sep 2026). Offices, shops, hotel units, land and whole buildings are left out.

Where the action was

Sales and value count a community's apartments, villas and townhouses together. Prices are per kind, with ready and off-plan apartments apart; "—" means fewer than 20 priced sales in the month.

What happened in September

The biggest deals registered this month:

• AED 285.00M — entire building in Nahda 1 (3 Sept)
• AED 260.00M — villa or townhouse in Palm Jumeirah (1 Sept)
• AED 252.00M — land parcel in Hadaeq Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid (Dubai Hills Estate, MBR City District 7) (1 Sept)

3 new off-plan projects appeared on the market this month — among them Treppan Vision (Fakhruddin Properties), Portside by Samana (Samana Developers), Izel by Zoya (Zoya Developments).

From the wider market:

• UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026. The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 (published September 22, 2026) placed Dubai 4th globally — up from 5th in the 2025 edition — with an elevated-risk score of 1.16, compared with 1.09 the prior year. (UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026)
• Meraas awards AED ~1bn construction contract to GCC Contracting for Nad Al Sheba Gardens Phase 7. Meraas — the Dubai Holding Real Estate subsidiary operating the Nad Al Sheba Gardens master-planned villa community — awarded an approximately AED 1 billion construction contract to GCC Contracting for Phase 7 of the development, announced September 2026. (Meraas official press release)
• Dubai demand shifts from ultra-luxury (>Dh10M) to high-value mid-range (Dh1M–Dh2M) segment in 2026. Leading UAE developers stated in September 2026 that appetite for ultra-luxury property above Dh10 million–Dh15 million had softened in favour of the Dh1 million to Dh2 million bracket, as a growing population of professionals, entrepreneurs, and families seek high-quality homes at accessible price points. (The National)

Rents & yields

Registered apartment leases in 2026 average AED 60,638/year across 425,636 contracts (+1.1% vs 2025); villa and townhouse leases average AED 175,000/year across 50,027 contracts (+2.9% vs 2025). The best net rental yields right now — after service charges — among communities with at least 60 ready sales in the last 12 months, median rent over median price of the same kind:

Rents against the official RERA Rental Index

Dubai's rent-increase rule (Decree No. 43 of 2013) compares a tenant's rent with the official RERA Smart Rental Index average for the building. Putting the typical registered Ejari rent (2026) next to the index for 334 area-and-bedroom groups across 101 areas, the typical rent sits at 101% of the index average. In 300 of those groups (90%) the typical rent is at or within 10% of the index, where no increase is allowed at renewal; the other 34 have room for 5–20%.

Where typical rents sit furthest below the index (busiest markets):

• Al Wasl, 3 bed: typical rent AED 285,000 against an index average of AED 358,106, so up to 10% is allowed at renewal.
• Jabal Ali First, 2 bed: typical rent AED 84,000 against an index average of AED 104,274, so up to 5% is allowed at renewal.
• Al Thanyah Fifth, 3 bed: typical rent AED 150,000 against an index average of AED 185,670, so up to 5% is allowed at renewal.
• Al Saffa First, 1 bed: typical rent AED 56,700 against an index average of AED 70,040, so up to 5% is allowed at renewal.
• Abu Hail, 2 bed: typical rent AED 35,000 against an index average of AED 42,800, so up to 5% is allowed at renewal.

Where typical rents already run above the index:

• Al Merkadh, 3 bed: typical rent AED 180,000 against an index average of AED 144,228 — in line with or above the index.
• Al Muteena, 3 bed: typical rent AED 92,000 against an index average of AED 75,912 — in line with or above the index.
• Al Qusais Industrial Second, 2 bed: typical rent AED 65,000 against an index average of AED 54,171 — in line with or above the index.
• Madinat Al Mataar, 1 bed: typical rent AED 57,500 against an index average of AED 48,578 — in line with or above the index.

These are area-level guides: the index is set building by building, and each tenancy is judged on its own rent. Check a specific building in the rent increase calculator. Indicative; the official RERA calculator is the final word.

The live market check — asking vs sold

Our deal radar tracks 97,480 live sale listings and 110,608 rentals against actual sold prices. As of publication, sellers are asking a median +3.2% versus what identical units actually sold for (building-level comps) — a realistic pricing environment. 37,767 listings are currently asking below their building's sold median → ranked by opportunity at dxbpropy.ai/deals.

Across 97,480 active sale listings, asking prices are being lowered 2.2× more often than raised (avg −7.5%), with a median 52 days on market.

Dubai against world cities

Dubai's ready apartments averaged AED 1,612/sqft over the 12 months to Sep 2026. The same budget buys about 3.8 times the floor space in Dubai as in Hong Kong, and about 2.1 times as in London.

Compiled by dxbpropy.ai from each source's published figures, converted at European Central Bank reference rates of 2 October 2026. Cities measure homes differently, so read this as a rough guide.

Macro backdrop

The wider indicators feeding into Dubai real estate this month:

Sourced from Dubai Statistics Center / data.dubai and the World Bank, independent of the sales records above.

Construction costs — the leading signal for off-plan pricing

What this means in practice: the index tracks what it costs a developer to build — materials, labour, machinery — separate from land or sale price.

• Off-plan launch prices: a rising cost index is the main reason developers price new launches above the previous phase in the same community. At the current pace, expect launch prices to keep climbing even where absorption is only moderate.
• Ready prices: built stock was completed at the old cost, so a rising index does not lift it month to month — it raises the replacement cost, which supports resale values over time.
• Value read for buyers: when a launch price runs well ahead of the construction-cost trend, the difference is demand and positioning — check it against ready AED/sqft in the same community.

Supply pipeline

Handover pressure is moderate: completions are running somewhat above the historical norm — watch absorption in the busiest off-plan districts. Area-by-area handover schedules: dxbpropy.ai/supply.

Outlook — the next 12–24 months

Anchored to today's momentum (+1.3% YoY on the index) and the moderate supply pipeline, our scenario read:

• Base case — roughly flat (±1%). Prices plateau while record supply is absorbed; villas and prime hold up best.
• Higher case — +5%/yr. Wealth migration and villa/prime scarcity reignite a demand-led leg, as in 2021–24.
• Lower case — -5% then stabilising. Heavy supply meets an external shock; history (2014–16) says such corrections are shallow, area-specific and recover.

The full interactive outlook with the fan chart lives at dxbpropy.ai/predictions. Scenarios are a data-grounded read, not a guaranteed forecast.

What it means for you

Buyers and investors

• The price index is 4.5% below its January 2026 high, so asking prices have more room for discussion than a year ago.
• Off-plan apartments sold for 19% more per sqft than ready ones this month. A ready home in the same community is the natural price check for a new launch.
• For rental income, Living Legends apartments return about 7.7% net after service charges, the highest among communities with enough sales and leases to measure.

Sellers and landlords

• 10,973 sales is 45% fewer than September 2025. Homes priced close to recent sold prices in their building are the ones finding buyers.
• Ready apartments averaged AED 1,589/sqft, +2.7% on the year — the reference point for pricing a resale.
• Registered apartment rents in 2026 average AED 60,638 a year, +1.1% vs 2025 — the reference point for a renewal or a new lease.

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Every figure above is computed from the dxbpropy.ai database — official Dubai Land Department records (through September 2026) plus 200 million+ live-market datapoints, growing daily — not estimates. Ready and off-plan segments are never blended. For a report on a specific area, building or budget, ask the AI at dxbpropy.ai.